Bet on...Davydenko

Nikolay Davydenko outclashed Rafa Nadal 7-6 6-3 to win the Shanghai Masters final and clinch his 18th title, in a manner of style even more impressing than the score would suggest. The Russian, renewed after the bet enquiry, the scandal and the suspects followed the sadly famous Sopot first round match against Vassallo Arguello in 2007, is now the most testing opponent to verify a player’s fitness. And Nadal, playing his first final for five months, showed to have some way to go to find his best form: he managed only nine winners to the 28-years-old Rusian’s 35. Davydenko is certain to finish the year outside the top-5 for the first time since 2004. And is now the player with the best result not to have played a Grand Slam final yet.

Now the Russian is seventh in the Year-to-Date and improves his odds to go to London for the World Tour Finals. All players can add points from the Atp 500 in either Basel or Valencia in the week of 2 Novembrer and again at the Paris Masters. But Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Nikolay Davydenko, Marin Cilic, Tommy Robredo and Radek Stepanek have all won two Atp 250 titles. And this could give some more chances for Robin Soderling, now n.9 in the YTD, now in Stockholm; because he won Bastad but has only 90 points from his second best performance in the ATP 250. So winning in Sweden, he could add 160 points to his ranking.

Now see more in detail the Year-to-Date situation this week limited to players yet uncertain of their qualification for the Finals.

Andy Roddick 4,330
Nikolay Davydenko 3,450
Fernando Verdasco 3,030
Robin Soderling 2,820
Fernando Gonzalez 2,780
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 2,640
Marin Cilic 2,205
Gilles Simon 2,105
Radek Stepanek 2,095
Tommy Robredo 2,040
Gael Monfils 1,975

Andy Roddick: The American, who has qualified six consecutive years for the Finals, is the highest-ranked player yet to clinch his 2009 berth. After the knee injury sustained at the Shanghai Masters, he is not scheduled to play until the Valencia Open 500 from 2 November.

Nikolay Davydenko: Like Tsonga, the Russian cannot count any more points earned at the 250s because he already counts titles in Kuala Lumpur and Umag. In Atp 500s he has now earned 815 points: he will add something improving the Beijing quarters (90 points)
Fernando Verdasco: Attempting to qualify for the first time, super-fit Spanish left-hander will come back oncourt during the week of 2 November in Valencia. He has 180 points from ATP 500s and can add 100 points in 250s but he should won a tournament to discard the Kuala Lumpur final.

Robin Soderling: Players immediately behind him have all won two ATP World Tour 250 tournaments, so cannot add to their totals outside the 500s and 1000s. But Soderling can add points at the 250 in Stockholm.

Fernando Gonzalez: Hard-hitting is next playing Basel, where he will attempt to add 500 points to his total. He played three 500s (with 405 points) but he has an available slot yet, having not played Monte Carlo.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: The powerful Frenchman added 500 points last week by winning in Tokyo. But he cannot add to his points tally at his next event in Lyon as he is already counting the maximum two 250-pointers from title wins in Marseille and Johannesburg. So his performances at the 500 in Valencia and Paris will be crucial.

Marin Cilic: Having maxed out his 250s with tournament victories in Chennai and Zagreb, he has low chances to go to London. He shouldn’t play until Paris, almost surely too late to maintain some hope, but he may obtain a wild card into Valencia or Basel
Gilles Simon: As a winner of just one 250 title this year in Bangkok, the French counter-puncher can ad at the 250 event in Lyon next week.

Radek Stepanek: The Czech, who last year appeared at the Finals as an alternate, cannot add points in Vienna due to his titles in San Jose and Brisbane. So he will look to Basel and Paris to make his move.

Tommy Robredo: Unable to count further points earned at the 250s due to his titles in Buenos Aires and Costa do Sauipe, Robredo is not scheduled to play again until the ATP World Tour 500 in Valencia.

Gael Monfils: A winner of just one 250 title in Metz, Monfils can make ground at the 250 tournament in Vienna. He will also play in Valencia and Paris.

Thoughts from Shanghai

Safin and the handshaking
When you see Marat Safin walking with the shadows of his past glory beside him and with the end of his career approaching, playing against Mr Unstability Thomas Berdych you could expect everything but a straight match. The encounter filled up with the expectations. In the first set Safin dominated the match with 6 aces while Berdych was out-played and seemingly close to retirement. After that the Czech received treatment and finished to win the match. Safin refused to shake his adversary's hand. Later, in the press room, he confirmed once again his genuinity and spontaneity of tongue and mind, specular to his not-mediate, not-reflected tennis. ““Don't pretend that you are injured and then you start running around and start to hit winners and then all of a sudden you pull the hands up in the air after winning the match?...So then of course the guy will say 'No, I've been injured but then I felt a little bit better'.”
"Of course he will find 10,000 excuses. Still, it's not enough. You're playing or you're not playing”.

The mind goes to the frozen handshaking between Jimmy Connors and John McEnroe at the end of 1988 Us Open semifinal: certainly the two were never mistaken as British gentlemen. But they showed glimpses of genuine personality, also if, as Martin Amis once wrote, “personality” in tennis is too often synonymous with a “seven-letter epithet that begins with a and ends with e”.

The real question, now, is that: this simple act, sign of camaraderie, meant to testify the fair play, is become the showing, the parody of the fair play, of that really genuine spirit characterizing the “third time” in rugby. What should have been a feeling became a theatrical play. On the one side, you could see the mocking-bird of an exaggerated correctness, the ostentation of a sacrifice, the relinquishment of the natural, inner competitive instincts. An the vassal style handshakes too many times devoted to Roger Federer are there to demonstrate it. On the other, a frigid routine, a mechanical act that lost everything authentical. In an era of appearance and ephemeral celebrity, Marat Safin remains as an appreciable exception.

James Blake mistery
Entertaining and losing. James Blake's match against Rafa Nadal in Shanghai was similar to many other of his encounters when he surrendered to big stars. When he plays against Federer or the Mallorcan, he shows all his hybrid nature, of a 30-years-old promising youngster who doesn't want to be considered a savvy veteran. But he's deep, intelligent on and off court, the nearest to a philosopher you could meet in a tennis center. Yet, he hasn't hit his peak, in tennis and life. He could become an informed citizen, with an active role in the society, and a great player, even nowadays. Despite the Boris Becker theorem (you measure a tennis player's life in dog years) Blake is younger than his DoB. He changed his long-time coach and friend hoping to win his first Masters 1000 or reach a Grand Slam final. After his entertaining defeat against the Mallorcan champion, however, we can learn a lesson. He has an inner smile difficultly compatible with world-class tennis. His injuries, the death of his father made him a better and strongest man. His foundation for the research against cancer improved his altruistic spirit. He seems, in other words, too good-natured for harsh tennis matches. For him tennis is an important, but not dominant part of his identity; and sometimes it seems he tries not to hurt too much players considering success in sport as their principal reason of life.

Long is better. Or not?

Another big star was forced to retire from the Shanghai Master 1000 in as many days. After Andy Roddick, today Juan Martin Del Potro surrendered to a wrist injury continuing the curse that has seemingly affected him after his American triumph. Jurgen Melzer played consistently, without conceding anything to the Argentine, who was broken immediately to 0-2, but broke back to 2-3. They went on with serve until 6-5 Melzer; then the Austrian displayed the best game of his match coming up with a stunning, change-of-direction forehand winner straight down the line to bring up a set point. But he hit a backhand long on the next point and wasted another chance soon after. FinallyDel Potro had a shocker with the next couple of points and slapped a straight forward forehand volley well long of the baseline to concede the set at Melzer's third attempt. The second set last only for three games, then Melzer secured a third round against Feliciano Lopez.

The two injuries left open space for a rethinking of the more and more tiresome calendar. Players, and Roddick was one of the more critics, complained for the excessive length of the season and against the ranking reform. Atp, in fact, has forced the big to play the four Grand Slams, the Masters Series (Montecarlo maintained the status of MS but players were not obliged to guarantee their presence), four Atp 500, whose at least one after the Us Open, and two Atp 250 that went to compose the amount of their ranking points. If they cannot go to one of the “obliged tournaments” they’d receive a zero in their ranking. So, the big, to avoid a zero negatively affecting their hopes to play the World Tour Finals finished to compel themelves to a wearying tour of the world with no appreciable pauses for recovery, rest or make-up sessions. The times of Pat Rafter, who gifted himself a period of surfing in his home-country after the majors, seems far.

Moreover, if the intention will become true, things are meant to worse for players’ ankle. In the name of business, in fact, to attract biggest players until now deserting the events, four South American tournaments are thinking to pass from the clay to the hardcourt. Buenos Aires organizers are leading this reform project, so hoping to attract the Tandil-born “Palito”: it’s very harsh, in fact, to have an home grown champion and accept he prefers going play abroad in the same week. Next year the Buenos Aires open is programmed from 16th to 22th February, contemporarily with other two events, in Marseille and Memphis, where with all possibilities Del Potro will decide to play. “It’s simply a matter of surface” said Martin Jaite, the event organiser who talked with Del Potro’s father and his coach, Franco Davin. “In that period he’ll has been preparing for Miami and Indian Wells, the first Masters 1000 of the season”. With Buenos Aires, also Costa do Saouipe, Vina del Mar and Acapulco could change surface and make hardcourt the real common denominator of the season. The 2009 calendar is composed of 66 events: 21 on the clay, 6 on the lawn, 39 on hardcourts, indoor or outdoor. If the reform would “pass”, without considering a possible similar decision at Umag, the equilibrium would become 43-17. Effectively too much. The clay would become the second “victim” of business, after the lawn. Because tennis, as everything in the world, is bending itself to business and television. And reasons of money doesn’t contemplate the existence of specificity cubbies.

Critics could oppose to theese considerations the news that Nadal and Federer will be present at the Abu Dhabi exhibition, for the Capitala World Tennis Championships, starting the 31th december 2009. Their season will start before, they will gain more additional money. And, above all, they are the only two player to can manage their calendar freely, the only, or at least, who can afford a “zero” or two without visible counter-indications. Not everybody has such a privilege.

Hard night’s day for Mr.Ace

Lleyton Hewitt reduced John “Mr.Ace” Isner to a Volandri whatsoever in the first Shanghai Masters 1000 big match: Rusty won 6-2 6-4.



Long John had immediately the epiphany of his fate when Hewitt grabbed an early break to 2-1 with a perfect backhand lob (yes, you’ve read well) surprising the 6’9” giant fighting with the range of his groundstrokes. A second break and an easy hold gave Rusty the first set. Things seemed easier and easier for the Australian, while Isner’s serve improved for three service game before failing again; three break points in the same game were too much for the American who saved two but surrendered to the inside-out forehand from Hewitt who wasted two match points on Isner’s serve at 5-3 but closing easily in the next game.

While Davydenko defeated Kunytsin (in the less intriguing match of the day, the one I could never watch, despite the great respect due to a champion like Davydenko) securing a third round clash against Mano de Pedra Gonzalez and Tommy Haas overpowered Benjamin Becker, the lights of the stage were devoted to “Psycho”, a tennis drama in two distinct acts. In the first Marin Cilic decided to completely waste the few hopes to be in the eight elected for the World Tour Finals and gave space to Mr Instability, Thomas Berdych, as I resumed in the previous post. Not satisfied, the Czech now awaits for the wild-card Marat Safin. Would bookmakers accepts bets on the total amount of broken racquets in the match?

“French gift” could be the title of the second act of the drama. Principal characters Gael Monfils and PHM, alias Paul Henry Mathieu. The 23-years-old confirmed once more that without injuries he could firmly stand in the top-10. But he has three zero in his ranking points (he withdrew from Wimbledon and the Masters 1000 in Rome and Madrid) and has to be pleased with his berth fourteenth best player in the world. Today Mathieu, in the “2002 Davis Cup final” version tried, and succedeed in making everything elementary for La Monf, who broke twice and clinched the first set with a comfortable 6-2 after an unreturnable serve. Same scheme in the second. Tame double fault by PHM to hand Monfils the break to 2-1. Mathieu is returned the player uncapable to beat even the center keeper’s son and surrendered 6-2 6-2 when Monfils displayed a decent sliced backhand drop shot over the net: Mathieu could have done something more anyway.

Stanislas "the Manislas" Wawrinka needed three hours and ten minutes to subdue Lukas Kubot, but seven games sufficed him to go though to the third round. Andy Roddick was forced to retire when he was leading 4-3. The Swiss started masking his tiredness with fierce groundstrokes targeting the American backhand. Andy served well, wasted two breakpoints in the seventh game, but pulled up after the forehand winner from the Swiss. He asked for the injury time, but even after the treatment he limped badly and shaked hands with Wawrinka, who now will face Radek Stepanek (75 64 to Andreas Beck)

Trading places

Waiting for the big star entrance in the Shanghai Masters 1000, let’s take a look to the Race standing, essential to determine the eight eligible to play the first ATP World Tour Finals hosted in the prestigious O2 Arena in London.

With the result updated to today, not considering the first five place, because Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray and Del Potro, are all qualified, the ranking is:

6 Roddick 4410 (2190 Grand Slams – 1090 Master Series – 1130 Others)
7 Verdasco 3080 (1140 GS – 820 MS – 820 others)
8 Gonzalez 2690 (1350 GS – 595 MS – 745 others)

9 Soderling 2650 (1785 – 165 – 700)
10 Tsonga 2640 (810 -650 – 1180)
11 Davydenko 2360 (630 – 370 – 1360)
12 Cilic 2025 (810 – 280 – 935)

Cilic was defeated by Thomas Berdych in Shanghai, in a schizophrenic and psychotic match: the Czech squandered three set point in a thrilling first set tiebreaker won by Berdych 10-8. Then Cilic is perfect in the next set, breaking to 4-2 thanks to a whipping forehand winner across court and sealing the second 6-3. In the third Cilic broke twice in a row to 2-1 and 3-2 but went out of mind losing the last four games in a row. So he erased almost definitely all his chances to leave to London. Roddick, despite his astonishing defeat against Kubot in Beijing, is in pole position while Verdasco has lost a great chance losing in the Kuala Lumpir Masters 500 to Davydenko, who defeated Kunytsin in Shanghai. With two Masters 1000 and two Masters 500, played in the same week, Basel and Valencia and four Masters 250, it will be important to see how theese second tier events could determine the “list of the eight”. The players could insert four Masters 500 and two Masters 250 in the best other countable results. So Verdasco has to win a Masters 500 to gain 100 points, while Soderling and Gonzalez can improve their points reaching a final. A semi would be enough for Davydenko, having great chances, given his last form, to be in England.

My pick: Roddick, Tsonga and Davydenko.