Bet on...Davydenko

Nikolay Davydenko outclashed Rafa Nadal 7-6 6-3 to win the Shanghai Masters final and clinch his 18th title, in a manner of style even more impressing than the score would suggest. The Russian, renewed after the bet enquiry, the scandal and the suspects followed the sadly famous Sopot first round match against Vassallo Arguello in 2007, is now the most testing opponent to verify a player’s fitness. And Nadal, playing his first final for five months, showed to have some way to go to find his best form: he managed only nine winners to the 28-years-old Rusian’s 35. Davydenko is certain to finish the year outside the top-5 for the first time since 2004. And is now the player with the best result not to have played a Grand Slam final yet.

Now the Russian is seventh in the Year-to-Date and improves his odds to go to London for the World Tour Finals. All players can add points from the Atp 500 in either Basel or Valencia in the week of 2 Novembrer and again at the Paris Masters. But Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Nikolay Davydenko, Marin Cilic, Tommy Robredo and Radek Stepanek have all won two Atp 250 titles. And this could give some more chances for Robin Soderling, now n.9 in the YTD, now in Stockholm; because he won Bastad but has only 90 points from his second best performance in the ATP 250. So winning in Sweden, he could add 160 points to his ranking.

Now see more in detail the Year-to-Date situation this week limited to players yet uncertain of their qualification for the Finals.

Andy Roddick 4,330
Nikolay Davydenko 3,450
Fernando Verdasco 3,030
Robin Soderling 2,820
Fernando Gonzalez 2,780
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 2,640
Marin Cilic 2,205
Gilles Simon 2,105
Radek Stepanek 2,095
Tommy Robredo 2,040
Gael Monfils 1,975

Andy Roddick: The American, who has qualified six consecutive years for the Finals, is the highest-ranked player yet to clinch his 2009 berth. After the knee injury sustained at the Shanghai Masters, he is not scheduled to play until the Valencia Open 500 from 2 November.

Nikolay Davydenko: Like Tsonga, the Russian cannot count any more points earned at the 250s because he already counts titles in Kuala Lumpur and Umag. In Atp 500s he has now earned 815 points: he will add something improving the Beijing quarters (90 points)
Fernando Verdasco: Attempting to qualify for the first time, super-fit Spanish left-hander will come back oncourt during the week of 2 November in Valencia. He has 180 points from ATP 500s and can add 100 points in 250s but he should won a tournament to discard the Kuala Lumpur final.

Robin Soderling: Players immediately behind him have all won two ATP World Tour 250 tournaments, so cannot add to their totals outside the 500s and 1000s. But Soderling can add points at the 250 in Stockholm.

Fernando Gonzalez: Hard-hitting is next playing Basel, where he will attempt to add 500 points to his total. He played three 500s (with 405 points) but he has an available slot yet, having not played Monte Carlo.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: The powerful Frenchman added 500 points last week by winning in Tokyo. But he cannot add to his points tally at his next event in Lyon as he is already counting the maximum two 250-pointers from title wins in Marseille and Johannesburg. So his performances at the 500 in Valencia and Paris will be crucial.

Marin Cilic: Having maxed out his 250s with tournament victories in Chennai and Zagreb, he has low chances to go to London. He shouldn’t play until Paris, almost surely too late to maintain some hope, but he may obtain a wild card into Valencia or Basel
Gilles Simon: As a winner of just one 250 title this year in Bangkok, the French counter-puncher can ad at the 250 event in Lyon next week.

Radek Stepanek: The Czech, who last year appeared at the Finals as an alternate, cannot add points in Vienna due to his titles in San Jose and Brisbane. So he will look to Basel and Paris to make his move.

Tommy Robredo: Unable to count further points earned at the 250s due to his titles in Buenos Aires and Costa do Sauipe, Robredo is not scheduled to play again until the ATP World Tour 500 in Valencia.

Gael Monfils: A winner of just one 250 title in Metz, Monfils can make ground at the 250 tournament in Vienna. He will also play in Valencia and Paris.

Long is better. Or not?

Another big star was forced to retire from the Shanghai Master 1000 in as many days. After Andy Roddick, today Juan Martin Del Potro surrendered to a wrist injury continuing the curse that has seemingly affected him after his American triumph. Jurgen Melzer played consistently, without conceding anything to the Argentine, who was broken immediately to 0-2, but broke back to 2-3. They went on with serve until 6-5 Melzer; then the Austrian displayed the best game of his match coming up with a stunning, change-of-direction forehand winner straight down the line to bring up a set point. But he hit a backhand long on the next point and wasted another chance soon after. FinallyDel Potro had a shocker with the next couple of points and slapped a straight forward forehand volley well long of the baseline to concede the set at Melzer's third attempt. The second set last only for three games, then Melzer secured a third round against Feliciano Lopez.

The two injuries left open space for a rethinking of the more and more tiresome calendar. Players, and Roddick was one of the more critics, complained for the excessive length of the season and against the ranking reform. Atp, in fact, has forced the big to play the four Grand Slams, the Masters Series (Montecarlo maintained the status of MS but players were not obliged to guarantee their presence), four Atp 500, whose at least one after the Us Open, and two Atp 250 that went to compose the amount of their ranking points. If they cannot go to one of the “obliged tournaments” they’d receive a zero in their ranking. So, the big, to avoid a zero negatively affecting their hopes to play the World Tour Finals finished to compel themelves to a wearying tour of the world with no appreciable pauses for recovery, rest or make-up sessions. The times of Pat Rafter, who gifted himself a period of surfing in his home-country after the majors, seems far.

Moreover, if the intention will become true, things are meant to worse for players’ ankle. In the name of business, in fact, to attract biggest players until now deserting the events, four South American tournaments are thinking to pass from the clay to the hardcourt. Buenos Aires organizers are leading this reform project, so hoping to attract the Tandil-born “Palito”: it’s very harsh, in fact, to have an home grown champion and accept he prefers going play abroad in the same week. Next year the Buenos Aires open is programmed from 16th to 22th February, contemporarily with other two events, in Marseille and Memphis, where with all possibilities Del Potro will decide to play. “It’s simply a matter of surface” said Martin Jaite, the event organiser who talked with Del Potro’s father and his coach, Franco Davin. “In that period he’ll has been preparing for Miami and Indian Wells, the first Masters 1000 of the season”. With Buenos Aires, also Costa do Saouipe, Vina del Mar and Acapulco could change surface and make hardcourt the real common denominator of the season. The 2009 calendar is composed of 66 events: 21 on the clay, 6 on the lawn, 39 on hardcourts, indoor or outdoor. If the reform would “pass”, without considering a possible similar decision at Umag, the equilibrium would become 43-17. Effectively too much. The clay would become the second “victim” of business, after the lawn. Because tennis, as everything in the world, is bending itself to business and television. And reasons of money doesn’t contemplate the existence of specificity cubbies.

Critics could oppose to theese considerations the news that Nadal and Federer will be present at the Abu Dhabi exhibition, for the Capitala World Tennis Championships, starting the 31th december 2009. Their season will start before, they will gain more additional money. And, above all, they are the only two player to can manage their calendar freely, the only, or at least, who can afford a “zero” or two without visible counter-indications. Not everybody has such a privilege.

Hard night’s day for Mr.Ace

Lleyton Hewitt reduced John “Mr.Ace” Isner to a Volandri whatsoever in the first Shanghai Masters 1000 big match: Rusty won 6-2 6-4.



Long John had immediately the epiphany of his fate when Hewitt grabbed an early break to 2-1 with a perfect backhand lob (yes, you’ve read well) surprising the 6’9” giant fighting with the range of his groundstrokes. A second break and an easy hold gave Rusty the first set. Things seemed easier and easier for the Australian, while Isner’s serve improved for three service game before failing again; three break points in the same game were too much for the American who saved two but surrendered to the inside-out forehand from Hewitt who wasted two match points on Isner’s serve at 5-3 but closing easily in the next game.

While Davydenko defeated Kunytsin (in the less intriguing match of the day, the one I could never watch, despite the great respect due to a champion like Davydenko) securing a third round clash against Mano de Pedra Gonzalez and Tommy Haas overpowered Benjamin Becker, the lights of the stage were devoted to “Psycho”, a tennis drama in two distinct acts. In the first Marin Cilic decided to completely waste the few hopes to be in the eight elected for the World Tour Finals and gave space to Mr Instability, Thomas Berdych, as I resumed in the previous post. Not satisfied, the Czech now awaits for the wild-card Marat Safin. Would bookmakers accepts bets on the total amount of broken racquets in the match?

“French gift” could be the title of the second act of the drama. Principal characters Gael Monfils and PHM, alias Paul Henry Mathieu. The 23-years-old confirmed once more that without injuries he could firmly stand in the top-10. But he has three zero in his ranking points (he withdrew from Wimbledon and the Masters 1000 in Rome and Madrid) and has to be pleased with his berth fourteenth best player in the world. Today Mathieu, in the “2002 Davis Cup final” version tried, and succedeed in making everything elementary for La Monf, who broke twice and clinched the first set with a comfortable 6-2 after an unreturnable serve. Same scheme in the second. Tame double fault by PHM to hand Monfils the break to 2-1. Mathieu is returned the player uncapable to beat even the center keeper’s son and surrendered 6-2 6-2 when Monfils displayed a decent sliced backhand drop shot over the net: Mathieu could have done something more anyway.

Stanislas "the Manislas" Wawrinka needed three hours and ten minutes to subdue Lukas Kubot, but seven games sufficed him to go though to the third round. Andy Roddick was forced to retire when he was leading 4-3. The Swiss started masking his tiredness with fierce groundstrokes targeting the American backhand. Andy served well, wasted two breakpoints in the seventh game, but pulled up after the forehand winner from the Swiss. He asked for the injury time, but even after the treatment he limped badly and shaked hands with Wawrinka, who now will face Radek Stepanek (75 64 to Andreas Beck)

Trading places

Waiting for the big star entrance in the Shanghai Masters 1000, let’s take a look to the Race standing, essential to determine the eight eligible to play the first ATP World Tour Finals hosted in the prestigious O2 Arena in London.

With the result updated to today, not considering the first five place, because Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray and Del Potro, are all qualified, the ranking is:

6 Roddick 4410 (2190 Grand Slams – 1090 Master Series – 1130 Others)
7 Verdasco 3080 (1140 GS – 820 MS – 820 others)
8 Gonzalez 2690 (1350 GS – 595 MS – 745 others)

9 Soderling 2650 (1785 – 165 – 700)
10 Tsonga 2640 (810 -650 – 1180)
11 Davydenko 2360 (630 – 370 – 1360)
12 Cilic 2025 (810 – 280 – 935)

Cilic was defeated by Thomas Berdych in Shanghai, in a schizophrenic and psychotic match: the Czech squandered three set point in a thrilling first set tiebreaker won by Berdych 10-8. Then Cilic is perfect in the next set, breaking to 4-2 thanks to a whipping forehand winner across court and sealing the second 6-3. In the third Cilic broke twice in a row to 2-1 and 3-2 but went out of mind losing the last four games in a row. So he erased almost definitely all his chances to leave to London. Roddick, despite his astonishing defeat against Kubot in Beijing, is in pole position while Verdasco has lost a great chance losing in the Kuala Lumpir Masters 500 to Davydenko, who defeated Kunytsin in Shanghai. With two Masters 1000 and two Masters 500, played in the same week, Basel and Valencia and four Masters 250, it will be important to see how theese second tier events could determine the “list of the eight”. The players could insert four Masters 500 and two Masters 250 in the best other countable results. So Verdasco has to win a Masters 500 to gain 100 points, while Soderling and Gonzalez can improve their points reaching a final. A semi would be enough for Davydenko, having great chances, given his last form, to be in England.

My pick: Roddick, Tsonga and Davydenko.

Davis Cup 2010: what a draw!

Rafa Nadal against Roger Federer on the Spanish clay (the odds that Costa will choose the “red” to host Switzerland are great), Novak Djokovic on front of his Serbian supporters facing Andy Roddick. Two hot-spots for the next Davis Cup first round, programmed for the weekend before the Indian Wells Masters 1000.

It will be a key decision for the actual n.1, winner this year over the Mallorcan in Madrid. In the last five years, Federer has never played the Davis first round ties; this time surface and hosting city could suggest him to go on with the same attitude, but the value he says to assign to the team competition could convince him to act differently. This is one of the last chances he has to lift up the Dwight’s Pot. And sacrificing a bit of condition towards Indian Wells could become an acceptable and sufferable counter-indication.

The eventual winner will face France or Germany. The Bleus has the ground chance and greater odds to pass through, considered the ranking gaps, nonetheless the “debutant” Simon and Monfils encountered poor figures respectively against Berdych (in the WG first round loss to Czechs) and against the 2006 Wimbledon junior champion, the Dutch Thiemo De Bakker, in the playoff. Tsonga saved French honour and pride and will prepare the tie against Germany (reminding the thrilling 1982 World Cup semifinal) with a perfect record of 6-0 in Davis cup rubbers. In a match probably played on the clay, Kohlschreiber could become the strenght of Germans, while Haas, handing glimpses of his old style and standards at Wimbledon, could face difficulties in best-to-5 singles with long rallies. Besides, he hasn’t played in Davis since 2007 when he surrendered with a periodic 2-6 to Igor Andreev.

Russia and India appears like a generational clash. Without Safin, Russia based his hopes on the always reliable Davydenko and on Andreev, also if he became the icon of the Israelian fall with the sticker labelling “Russia” melancholically pending from the back of his shirt. Tursunov is the best doubles player, but this seems a point already assigned to India: Bhupathi and Paes played 25 Davis doubles and lost only twice, being unbeaten since 1996. Devvarman, the ex Ncaa Champion, and the child prodigy Yuki Bhambri, junior n.1, doesn’s anyway seems a real menace for Tarpishev’s men.

For the third time in four years the draw has coupled Argentina and Sweden, i.e Robin Soderling, firt man to beat Nadal at the Roland Garros, and Juan Martin Del Potro, recent Us Open champion over an unusually nervous Roger Federer. In the previous four meetings, host team has always won. This time, above all if Nalbandian won’t be present, as it seem possible, the rule appears meant to be confirmed. The match will be played in Sweden, probably on the most ice-like surface among the regular ones.

In the low part of the draw Novak Djokovic could search his revenge over Andy Roddick, who defeated the Serb three times this season. The pot gave the Serbian the home advantage, but they have to choose the surface, and that’s not such an easy decision to make. They should actually opt for the clay: in this case, Patrick McEnroe could decide to give Sam Querrey, one of the rare Americans with some decent result on this surface, his Davis debut.

So we could see a thrilling derby, with not so negligible geopolitical meanings and implications, betweens Serbs and Croats. Karlovic and Cilic should overpower Ecuador (seeing the ranking, the feeblest team in the World Group). South Americans, led by the Lapentti brothers, would have had some chance playing at home. Against Brazil, Nico defeated Bellucci in his 37th Davis tie; in Croatia he won’t repeat the miracle.

Chile awaits eagerly the possible revenge in Israel to forget an embarassing defeat haunting them even nowadays. In the Yom Kippur, Dudi Sela stunned Fernando Gonzalez and Israel gained an historical passage to the World Group. And this year semifinal was only the last chapter of a marvellous tale. Now the match will be played on South American clay with the significant uncertainty about the presence of Mano de Pedra. The best Chilean player announced in March his intention to break the contract with the Federation after the president made public the amount granted to players. He lost the last three matches, but the captain Gildemeister promised to try everything possible to convince him come back.

In the last tie of the draw, the finalists of Czech Republic will travel to Belgium hoping in a great day of the proverbially fickle Stepanek and Berdyck. Belgium, instead, is praying to recover their n.1, Krzystof Vliegen (famous for a dramatic comeback against Safin from 0-6 1-3 in 2007 Montecarlo Masters), missing the playoff against Ukraine.

Off topic: Andy Murray is more and more resolute to abandon Great Britain to his destiny in the Euro/African group II. In the playoff against Poland the Scotster won his two singles but saw his wrist problem worsening, and it wasn’t enough. Great Britain is pathologically uncapable to put beside him another decent player: they unuccessfully tried Goodall, Eaton, Bogdanovic and so on. But a single, eloquent data, remains: when the contributions of Messrs Henman, Rusedski and Murray are taken out of the country's Davis Cup results for the last 20 years, Britain have failed to win a single match.

Us Open first week – Ups and downs

Roger Federer – Not extraordinary, not so bad anyway. He managed his energies remaining on court enough to find his form. Devin broke him twice, he lost a set to Hewitt then but Roger defeated the Aussie for the 14th time in a row. He’s the main candidate to win the title. Vote: 6.5

Rafa Nadal – Not so bad. He’s in the third round despite an abdominal injury against Almagro, who has to learn the difference between playing a series of beautiful strokes and playing a match. Rafa was broken five times, really too many, but the Spanih derby was exactly what the new, leaner Nadal needed: a straightforward three-setter that tested him enough... but not too much. Vote: 6.5

Andy Murray – The Scotster fall asleep for a set against the Chilean Capdeville, but found the usual variety and effectiveness of his game against Taylor Dent, apart for the under 50% of first serve in the first set. Now he’ll face Marin Cilic: the Brit has won all three of their previous meetings and will be confident of making the quarter-finals. Vote: 7

Andy Roddick – For the second time he lost without evident guilts against big bombers. Andy demonstrated again to suffer this kind of player capable of maintaining high standards on his serve, to erase any shadow of rythm from the match. Like against Querrey in Cincinnati (Andy lost 76 76), against John Isner (vote: 8), defeated some weeks ago in a dramatic three setter in Indianapolis, Roddick fought hard but there was nothing to do – vote 6

Taylor Dent – The serve-and-volleying panda was extraordinary. He came back to win a match in a major after four years after three back surgeries and 11 months passed immobilised in a bed for 23 hours a day. He tried to reach a real estate license, studied politics and religion, played to World of Warcraft videogame. But finally came back to tennis. Against Feliciano Lopez (vote: 5.5), a great talent wasted, he won a great match but completed his masterpiece against another atypical Spaniard, Ivan Navarro (ex Navarro-Pastor, who decided to cancel his second surname), who plays with two racquets (one to serve, another to return, forcing the ballboy to change it every two points in the tiebreaks) 255 net points in 252 minutes of incredibly enjoyable tennis, with the game suspended for 7 minutes because a 138 mph service by Dent unseated the net. A match who saw Dent celebrating shouting “You guys are unbelievable!” to the crowd and and emotional high-five to all the viewers in the first row. The successive defeat against Murray didn’t ruin his unforgettable joy. Vote:9

Italian tennis – The worst performance ever in Flushing Meadows for Italian guys. Five men in the main draw, as many defeats with only one set won (by the player with the most unfavourable odds, Flavio Cipolla against Benneteau). More than the results, Italian fans are concerned about the way these defeats arrived, without signs of reaction, without fighting, like Starace who lost 76 76 60 by the Swiss journeyman Chiudinelli (losing 7 points in a row in the second set tiebreak). Not the best way to head towards the Davis Cup playoff against Federer and Wawrinka. Vote: 4

Us Open day 1 - Highlights

Youzhny d. Mathieu 26 75 62 60
The 2006 Us Open semifinal Michael Youzhny defeated for the 5th time in 6 h2hs Paul-Henri Mathieu in the Psycho Match of the Day. At 2-5, with 10 errors and 3 winners, the Russian launched his racquet against the bench before a solid PHM (4 aces and 6 points to the net in 7 attempts in the first set) closed 62. But the Russian broke immediately in the second and caused some decisive regrets in the French saving two break points and go leading 42. The 10th game could become the key moment of the match. Youzhny, leading 54, committed three double faults handing the game to PHM, who, in the next one, gave back the courtesy. Youzhny with an astonishing winning backhand went 65 and sealed the set 75. Since then the match had no history. Youzhny won 26 75 62 60 with 49 winners and showing an increaing consintency from the back and to the net (20 points). Too many errors, 41, instead affected the French transforming only 53% of points with his first serve. Definitely not enough.

Federer d. Britton 61 63 75
Understandably moved, last year's junior Us Open runner-up devin Britton lost the first set 61 in just 18 minutes. But the rest of the match wasn't a stroll in the park for the number 1 anyway. Devin, n.1370 (so twice lower than Chris Eaton when he shocked the world not only for his Vauxhall with duck-taped rearview mirror but for his victory over Boris Pashanski at Wimbledon), notwithstanding an often uncontrollable forehand, showed glimpses of aggressive returns and smooth net-play leaving good impressions about his future. Even more, he broke twice King Roger. Firstly to go up 3-1 in the second: he played the best game, probably, of his life. breaking to love with two surpsising forehand cross-court winner.

But emotion wasn't a good company and he lost immediately his serve, and the set, because of a streak of 12 points to love for Roger, profiting from an inopportune double fault from Devin in the ninth game and clinching the set in 29 minutes with twi stinging returns.

Britton wanted to make his dream last more than is possible and mixing courage and inconscience, started serving well, mixing them up to good effect, and sometimes seemed unbeatable at the net; but he suffered when he had to stoop. His dream culminated in the break to 4-3 when he forced Federer on the back foot and into a series of mistakes, as the netted backhand giving Britton the game. But he wasted his chance: in the next game he saw a forehand volley fly long and mishit a forehand to 4-4. Federer never looked back, and sealed the success with a crosscourt forehand.


Definitely, even if he was given a bit of scare, above all in the third, Britton seemed too inconsistent to sustain a threat, but he showed to be more than a sparring partners and to have encouraging skills for his future career.

Isner d. Hanescu 61 76 76
Hanescu was bewildered for a set and a half. Lost the first 6-1, he was broken to 1-2 in the second after a sloppy and unfortunate game: Isner missed a sitter on the first point after getting a fortunate net cord, then Hanescu serves a double, and missed a volley on the break point, conquered by the American with a forehand approach shot. But a shocking smash by Isner who went long gave Hanescu a key break at 3-3 and the set was decided by a dramatic tiebreak. Hanescu dashed 4-1 and went 5-2 after an easy shot netted by the American. But a double fault and a series of not converted set points restored the score at 6-6. The Romanian failed another set point on his serve and a net cord gave the American one at 9-8. Nothing. Another chance for Hanescu (at 10-9) but this time he hit long. He went 11-10 up, but Isner saved the setpoint with an overpowering forehand bouncing on the line and finally sealed the tiebreak 16-14. In the third they went with serve until a second tiebreaker.

And Hanescu conquered, as he did last time, the first point against serve, but Isner took it straight back with a nice pass. Isner flight 6-3 up, but hanescu with a net approach and a good serve reduced the arrears to 5-6. But Isner closed at the first attempt. In the second round he could face Andy Roddick for a revenge of the recent highly contested Washington semifinal.

Blake d. Hidalgo 61 64 75
Easy success for James Blake, playing just after the ceremony in honour of Andre Agassi. A bit more of a practice session for the American, afflicted by a series of light injuries during the season. After an easy first set, they went on with serve until 4-4, then Blake broke at his sixth opportunity after forcing the Spaniard to deuce with a thunderous forehand down the line which the Spaniard can only slice into the net; another error by the long-blond haired Spaniard handed Blake the second set.

Hidalgo tried to play at higher standards than usual, but cracked down to 3-4. A bit of performance anxiety, probably, affected Blake who squandered a forehand long to lose the advantage to 5-5. It was the swan song for Hidalgo, though, blown away by Blake's power and conviction. A rasping forehand winner followed by a precise shot into the corner gave Blake the possibility to serve for the match. And he easily hold to come through to a second round against Olivier Rochus.

In the night session easy and largely predictable wins in straights sets for Andy Roddick (61 64 62 to the Bjorn Phau) and "Rusty" Hewitt, 60 63 63 to Alves.