Bet on...Davydenko

Nikolay Davydenko outclashed Rafa Nadal 7-6 6-3 to win the Shanghai Masters final and clinch his 18th title, in a manner of style even more impressing than the score would suggest. The Russian, renewed after the bet enquiry, the scandal and the suspects followed the sadly famous Sopot first round match against Vassallo Arguello in 2007, is now the most testing opponent to verify a player’s fitness. And Nadal, playing his first final for five months, showed to have some way to go to find his best form: he managed only nine winners to the 28-years-old Rusian’s 35. Davydenko is certain to finish the year outside the top-5 for the first time since 2004. And is now the player with the best result not to have played a Grand Slam final yet.

Now the Russian is seventh in the Year-to-Date and improves his odds to go to London for the World Tour Finals. All players can add points from the Atp 500 in either Basel or Valencia in the week of 2 Novembrer and again at the Paris Masters. But Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Nikolay Davydenko, Marin Cilic, Tommy Robredo and Radek Stepanek have all won two Atp 250 titles. And this could give some more chances for Robin Soderling, now n.9 in the YTD, now in Stockholm; because he won Bastad but has only 90 points from his second best performance in the ATP 250. So winning in Sweden, he could add 160 points to his ranking.

Now see more in detail the Year-to-Date situation this week limited to players yet uncertain of their qualification for the Finals.

Andy Roddick 4,330
Nikolay Davydenko 3,450
Fernando Verdasco 3,030
Robin Soderling 2,820
Fernando Gonzalez 2,780
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 2,640
Marin Cilic 2,205
Gilles Simon 2,105
Radek Stepanek 2,095
Tommy Robredo 2,040
Gael Monfils 1,975

Andy Roddick: The American, who has qualified six consecutive years for the Finals, is the highest-ranked player yet to clinch his 2009 berth. After the knee injury sustained at the Shanghai Masters, he is not scheduled to play until the Valencia Open 500 from 2 November.

Nikolay Davydenko: Like Tsonga, the Russian cannot count any more points earned at the 250s because he already counts titles in Kuala Lumpur and Umag. In Atp 500s he has now earned 815 points: he will add something improving the Beijing quarters (90 points)
Fernando Verdasco: Attempting to qualify for the first time, super-fit Spanish left-hander will come back oncourt during the week of 2 November in Valencia. He has 180 points from ATP 500s and can add 100 points in 250s but he should won a tournament to discard the Kuala Lumpur final.

Robin Soderling: Players immediately behind him have all won two ATP World Tour 250 tournaments, so cannot add to their totals outside the 500s and 1000s. But Soderling can add points at the 250 in Stockholm.

Fernando Gonzalez: Hard-hitting is next playing Basel, where he will attempt to add 500 points to his total. He played three 500s (with 405 points) but he has an available slot yet, having not played Monte Carlo.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: The powerful Frenchman added 500 points last week by winning in Tokyo. But he cannot add to his points tally at his next event in Lyon as he is already counting the maximum two 250-pointers from title wins in Marseille and Johannesburg. So his performances at the 500 in Valencia and Paris will be crucial.

Marin Cilic: Having maxed out his 250s with tournament victories in Chennai and Zagreb, he has low chances to go to London. He shouldn’t play until Paris, almost surely too late to maintain some hope, but he may obtain a wild card into Valencia or Basel
Gilles Simon: As a winner of just one 250 title this year in Bangkok, the French counter-puncher can ad at the 250 event in Lyon next week.

Radek Stepanek: The Czech, who last year appeared at the Finals as an alternate, cannot add points in Vienna due to his titles in San Jose and Brisbane. So he will look to Basel and Paris to make his move.

Tommy Robredo: Unable to count further points earned at the 250s due to his titles in Buenos Aires and Costa do Sauipe, Robredo is not scheduled to play again until the ATP World Tour 500 in Valencia.

Gael Monfils: A winner of just one 250 title in Metz, Monfils can make ground at the 250 tournament in Vienna. He will also play in Valencia and Paris.

Thoughts from Shanghai

Safin and the handshaking
When you see Marat Safin walking with the shadows of his past glory beside him and with the end of his career approaching, playing against Mr Unstability Thomas Berdych you could expect everything but a straight match. The encounter filled up with the expectations. In the first set Safin dominated the match with 6 aces while Berdych was out-played and seemingly close to retirement. After that the Czech received treatment and finished to win the match. Safin refused to shake his adversary's hand. Later, in the press room, he confirmed once again his genuinity and spontaneity of tongue and mind, specular to his not-mediate, not-reflected tennis. ““Don't pretend that you are injured and then you start running around and start to hit winners and then all of a sudden you pull the hands up in the air after winning the match?...So then of course the guy will say 'No, I've been injured but then I felt a little bit better'.”
"Of course he will find 10,000 excuses. Still, it's not enough. You're playing or you're not playing”.

The mind goes to the frozen handshaking between Jimmy Connors and John McEnroe at the end of 1988 Us Open semifinal: certainly the two were never mistaken as British gentlemen. But they showed glimpses of genuine personality, also if, as Martin Amis once wrote, “personality” in tennis is too often synonymous with a “seven-letter epithet that begins with a and ends with e”.

The real question, now, is that: this simple act, sign of camaraderie, meant to testify the fair play, is become the showing, the parody of the fair play, of that really genuine spirit characterizing the “third time” in rugby. What should have been a feeling became a theatrical play. On the one side, you could see the mocking-bird of an exaggerated correctness, the ostentation of a sacrifice, the relinquishment of the natural, inner competitive instincts. An the vassal style handshakes too many times devoted to Roger Federer are there to demonstrate it. On the other, a frigid routine, a mechanical act that lost everything authentical. In an era of appearance and ephemeral celebrity, Marat Safin remains as an appreciable exception.

James Blake mistery
Entertaining and losing. James Blake's match against Rafa Nadal in Shanghai was similar to many other of his encounters when he surrendered to big stars. When he plays against Federer or the Mallorcan, he shows all his hybrid nature, of a 30-years-old promising youngster who doesn't want to be considered a savvy veteran. But he's deep, intelligent on and off court, the nearest to a philosopher you could meet in a tennis center. Yet, he hasn't hit his peak, in tennis and life. He could become an informed citizen, with an active role in the society, and a great player, even nowadays. Despite the Boris Becker theorem (you measure a tennis player's life in dog years) Blake is younger than his DoB. He changed his long-time coach and friend hoping to win his first Masters 1000 or reach a Grand Slam final. After his entertaining defeat against the Mallorcan champion, however, we can learn a lesson. He has an inner smile difficultly compatible with world-class tennis. His injuries, the death of his father made him a better and strongest man. His foundation for the research against cancer improved his altruistic spirit. He seems, in other words, too good-natured for harsh tennis matches. For him tennis is an important, but not dominant part of his identity; and sometimes it seems he tries not to hurt too much players considering success in sport as their principal reason of life.

Long is better. Or not?

Another big star was forced to retire from the Shanghai Master 1000 in as many days. After Andy Roddick, today Juan Martin Del Potro surrendered to a wrist injury continuing the curse that has seemingly affected him after his American triumph. Jurgen Melzer played consistently, without conceding anything to the Argentine, who was broken immediately to 0-2, but broke back to 2-3. They went on with serve until 6-5 Melzer; then the Austrian displayed the best game of his match coming up with a stunning, change-of-direction forehand winner straight down the line to bring up a set point. But he hit a backhand long on the next point and wasted another chance soon after. FinallyDel Potro had a shocker with the next couple of points and slapped a straight forward forehand volley well long of the baseline to concede the set at Melzer's third attempt. The second set last only for three games, then Melzer secured a third round against Feliciano Lopez.

The two injuries left open space for a rethinking of the more and more tiresome calendar. Players, and Roddick was one of the more critics, complained for the excessive length of the season and against the ranking reform. Atp, in fact, has forced the big to play the four Grand Slams, the Masters Series (Montecarlo maintained the status of MS but players were not obliged to guarantee their presence), four Atp 500, whose at least one after the Us Open, and two Atp 250 that went to compose the amount of their ranking points. If they cannot go to one of the “obliged tournaments” they’d receive a zero in their ranking. So, the big, to avoid a zero negatively affecting their hopes to play the World Tour Finals finished to compel themelves to a wearying tour of the world with no appreciable pauses for recovery, rest or make-up sessions. The times of Pat Rafter, who gifted himself a period of surfing in his home-country after the majors, seems far.

Moreover, if the intention will become true, things are meant to worse for players’ ankle. In the name of business, in fact, to attract biggest players until now deserting the events, four South American tournaments are thinking to pass from the clay to the hardcourt. Buenos Aires organizers are leading this reform project, so hoping to attract the Tandil-born “Palito”: it’s very harsh, in fact, to have an home grown champion and accept he prefers going play abroad in the same week. Next year the Buenos Aires open is programmed from 16th to 22th February, contemporarily with other two events, in Marseille and Memphis, where with all possibilities Del Potro will decide to play. “It’s simply a matter of surface” said Martin Jaite, the event organiser who talked with Del Potro’s father and his coach, Franco Davin. “In that period he’ll has been preparing for Miami and Indian Wells, the first Masters 1000 of the season”. With Buenos Aires, also Costa do Saouipe, Vina del Mar and Acapulco could change surface and make hardcourt the real common denominator of the season. The 2009 calendar is composed of 66 events: 21 on the clay, 6 on the lawn, 39 on hardcourts, indoor or outdoor. If the reform would “pass”, without considering a possible similar decision at Umag, the equilibrium would become 43-17. Effectively too much. The clay would become the second “victim” of business, after the lawn. Because tennis, as everything in the world, is bending itself to business and television. And reasons of money doesn’t contemplate the existence of specificity cubbies.

Critics could oppose to theese considerations the news that Nadal and Federer will be present at the Abu Dhabi exhibition, for the Capitala World Tennis Championships, starting the 31th december 2009. Their season will start before, they will gain more additional money. And, above all, they are the only two player to can manage their calendar freely, the only, or at least, who can afford a “zero” or two without visible counter-indications. Not everybody has such a privilege.

Davis Cup 2010: what a draw!

Rafa Nadal against Roger Federer on the Spanish clay (the odds that Costa will choose the “red” to host Switzerland are great), Novak Djokovic on front of his Serbian supporters facing Andy Roddick. Two hot-spots for the next Davis Cup first round, programmed for the weekend before the Indian Wells Masters 1000.

It will be a key decision for the actual n.1, winner this year over the Mallorcan in Madrid. In the last five years, Federer has never played the Davis first round ties; this time surface and hosting city could suggest him to go on with the same attitude, but the value he says to assign to the team competition could convince him to act differently. This is one of the last chances he has to lift up the Dwight’s Pot. And sacrificing a bit of condition towards Indian Wells could become an acceptable and sufferable counter-indication.

The eventual winner will face France or Germany. The Bleus has the ground chance and greater odds to pass through, considered the ranking gaps, nonetheless the “debutant” Simon and Monfils encountered poor figures respectively against Berdych (in the WG first round loss to Czechs) and against the 2006 Wimbledon junior champion, the Dutch Thiemo De Bakker, in the playoff. Tsonga saved French honour and pride and will prepare the tie against Germany (reminding the thrilling 1982 World Cup semifinal) with a perfect record of 6-0 in Davis cup rubbers. In a match probably played on the clay, Kohlschreiber could become the strenght of Germans, while Haas, handing glimpses of his old style and standards at Wimbledon, could face difficulties in best-to-5 singles with long rallies. Besides, he hasn’t played in Davis since 2007 when he surrendered with a periodic 2-6 to Igor Andreev.

Russia and India appears like a generational clash. Without Safin, Russia based his hopes on the always reliable Davydenko and on Andreev, also if he became the icon of the Israelian fall with the sticker labelling “Russia” melancholically pending from the back of his shirt. Tursunov is the best doubles player, but this seems a point already assigned to India: Bhupathi and Paes played 25 Davis doubles and lost only twice, being unbeaten since 1996. Devvarman, the ex Ncaa Champion, and the child prodigy Yuki Bhambri, junior n.1, doesn’s anyway seems a real menace for Tarpishev’s men.

For the third time in four years the draw has coupled Argentina and Sweden, i.e Robin Soderling, firt man to beat Nadal at the Roland Garros, and Juan Martin Del Potro, recent Us Open champion over an unusually nervous Roger Federer. In the previous four meetings, host team has always won. This time, above all if Nalbandian won’t be present, as it seem possible, the rule appears meant to be confirmed. The match will be played in Sweden, probably on the most ice-like surface among the regular ones.

In the low part of the draw Novak Djokovic could search his revenge over Andy Roddick, who defeated the Serb three times this season. The pot gave the Serbian the home advantage, but they have to choose the surface, and that’s not such an easy decision to make. They should actually opt for the clay: in this case, Patrick McEnroe could decide to give Sam Querrey, one of the rare Americans with some decent result on this surface, his Davis debut.

So we could see a thrilling derby, with not so negligible geopolitical meanings and implications, betweens Serbs and Croats. Karlovic and Cilic should overpower Ecuador (seeing the ranking, the feeblest team in the World Group). South Americans, led by the Lapentti brothers, would have had some chance playing at home. Against Brazil, Nico defeated Bellucci in his 37th Davis tie; in Croatia he won’t repeat the miracle.

Chile awaits eagerly the possible revenge in Israel to forget an embarassing defeat haunting them even nowadays. In the Yom Kippur, Dudi Sela stunned Fernando Gonzalez and Israel gained an historical passage to the World Group. And this year semifinal was only the last chapter of a marvellous tale. Now the match will be played on South American clay with the significant uncertainty about the presence of Mano de Pedra. The best Chilean player announced in March his intention to break the contract with the Federation after the president made public the amount granted to players. He lost the last three matches, but the captain Gildemeister promised to try everything possible to convince him come back.

In the last tie of the draw, the finalists of Czech Republic will travel to Belgium hoping in a great day of the proverbially fickle Stepanek and Berdyck. Belgium, instead, is praying to recover their n.1, Krzystof Vliegen (famous for a dramatic comeback against Safin from 0-6 1-3 in 2007 Montecarlo Masters), missing the playoff against Ukraine.

Off topic: Andy Murray is more and more resolute to abandon Great Britain to his destiny in the Euro/African group II. In the playoff against Poland the Scotster won his two singles but saw his wrist problem worsening, and it wasn’t enough. Great Britain is pathologically uncapable to put beside him another decent player: they unuccessfully tried Goodall, Eaton, Bogdanovic and so on. But a single, eloquent data, remains: when the contributions of Messrs Henman, Rusedski and Murray are taken out of the country's Davis Cup results for the last 20 years, Britain have failed to win a single match.

Giant achievement

This simple headline testifies the greatness of Juan Martin Del Potro, capable to dethronize the five times reigning champion and by many indicated as the Goat (even if this label appears at least controversial, not to say stupid).

I saw this 6'6 shy Argentine two years ago, in Rome. He lost in the qualification rounds: he withdrew cause of a back injury, one of a long series of physical inconvenients. My first impression, seeing this young and tall guy with timid green eyes and long straight blond hairs was probably the same I had admiring Tsonga: will he be able to continue his development? He was capable to thwart his teenager adversaries in the juniors event, but his fragile skeleton would be able to support his ambitions, his dream of greatness? Monday I had the answer, the most astonishing answer I could expect to receive.

His stunning forehands should be labelled as non conventional weapons, he could impress an extremely heavy rotation causing a lethal acceleration, above all when he hit inside-out from the center of the baseline to the right angle. The appearent lazy mood hided an iron-made self confidence, not nocked by the tough openings, when Federer started the nth repeat performance meant to satisfy his narcissistical ego. Exceptional variations, chopped cross-court backhand passing shots, volleys and demi-volleys: although he continued to serve with percentages you could register in a provincial championship first round, that showing off seemed enough. But it was not. Del Potro believed in himself till the last point, his game was not the most agreeable to aesthetically educated eyes, but got is job done.

Roger lost his match at 5-4 30 all in the second set on the first of two carbon-copy down the line forehand passes. He started quarreling with the chair umpire and the Hawk Eye and simply lost his mind. His show, so perfect, so straight, transformed itself in an improvised and scheming performance. The King felt the earth sliding down his shoes, saw his narcissistical ego shattered with the mirror of his apparently asettical beauty. Palito multiplied his forehand winners, as many stabs to the ex-King wounded pride. So rattled was the Swiss to launch an unusual before than angry complaint towards Jake Gerner, the umpire, after he allowed the Argentine a call late (he took a lot longer than what is allowed) in the third set: "No, it’s too late,” an angry Federer said. “I wasn’t even able to challenge after two seconds and he takes ten seconds every time. Do you have any rules in there?”

And reprimanded a gesticulating Gerner in this way: "“Don’t do that with your hand. Don’t tell me to be quiet. I don’t give a s*** what he said. Don’t f***ing tell me the rules.”

The match, surely not the most enchanting of this edition (for real spectacle see Navarro-Dent, the best show of the 2009 Us Open), was by no doubt the greatest upset in the last ten years. Roger, benefitting from the Roddick indecent backhand volley, found a real contender for his next Grand Slam campaigns. Anyone who beats Nadal and Federer on consecutive days is a force to be reckoned with.

His renewed consciousness made him the most possible danger for the Big Four in the big events, cause they would face him in quarters. He can now win other slams, probably not on the clay, because his fisiological lack of horizontal mobility, and his scarce confidence in his backhand that brings him hit forehands from the left side and cover more free court. But on hardcourts and on the grass he's a menace for everyone, above all for the half-dull Djokovic or the Higueras-like Murray of this period.

Classy Cilic outpowered Murray

The Croat won 75 62 62 and went through to the Us Open quarters



When Murray hit the last forehand long ending his misery, Marin Cilic realized probably to have completed his personal puzzle finding his missing piece and starting filling his standards. The Croat, indicated by many as a future and bright star, had failed in big appointments (also if recently he defeated Blake in a dramatic Davis Cup five-setter). But today he was simply perfect, enjoyable, powerful and precise. This was the best performance of his career, he gained the first Grand Slam quarterfinal and the crowd could rub their hands thinking to the clash between the two big-bombers of this decade: Marin Cilic and Juan Martin Del Potro.

The Scotster in the first set held break points during the sixth game, but he wasted them with a backhand return dropping well wide and long and a crosscourt forehand wide after a remarkabler defense from the Croat. An ace and a backhand into the net at 5-4 15-40 (with Cilic serving) was practically an anticipated swan song. Cilic held, broke to 5-6, thanks also to an untimely double fault, and sealed the first set after another error from the Scot.

From that point, till the end of the match, Cilic didn't look back, despite the not extraordinary 31% of first serves in the second set, dropping only four games between second and third set.

The key of the match, apart from the paltry thirteen winners registrered by the Scot, was his oltranzist defensivism, his flat attitude, his low energy. Cilic showed an enviable bio-mechanic of strokes while Murray remained passively behind the baseline almost waiting for the unavoidable. The Croat turned the knife in the wound exacerbating the lack of a kliller-stroke in the Scotster game. On this kind of surface to emerge you have to be Nadal or you have to attack, and to do that profitably you have to devolve upon an ultimate stroke. Murray doesn't belong to any of theese two catehory.

And now, if Nadal, despite his being abdominally strained, succeed in beating Gael Monfils, the Mallorcan could come back nr.2 in the world ranking.

Us Open first week – Ups and downs

Roger Federer – Not extraordinary, not so bad anyway. He managed his energies remaining on court enough to find his form. Devin broke him twice, he lost a set to Hewitt then but Roger defeated the Aussie for the 14th time in a row. He’s the main candidate to win the title. Vote: 6.5

Rafa Nadal – Not so bad. He’s in the third round despite an abdominal injury against Almagro, who has to learn the difference between playing a series of beautiful strokes and playing a match. Rafa was broken five times, really too many, but the Spanih derby was exactly what the new, leaner Nadal needed: a straightforward three-setter that tested him enough... but not too much. Vote: 6.5

Andy Murray – The Scotster fall asleep for a set against the Chilean Capdeville, but found the usual variety and effectiveness of his game against Taylor Dent, apart for the under 50% of first serve in the first set. Now he’ll face Marin Cilic: the Brit has won all three of their previous meetings and will be confident of making the quarter-finals. Vote: 7

Andy Roddick – For the second time he lost without evident guilts against big bombers. Andy demonstrated again to suffer this kind of player capable of maintaining high standards on his serve, to erase any shadow of rythm from the match. Like against Querrey in Cincinnati (Andy lost 76 76), against John Isner (vote: 8), defeated some weeks ago in a dramatic three setter in Indianapolis, Roddick fought hard but there was nothing to do – vote 6

Taylor Dent – The serve-and-volleying panda was extraordinary. He came back to win a match in a major after four years after three back surgeries and 11 months passed immobilised in a bed for 23 hours a day. He tried to reach a real estate license, studied politics and religion, played to World of Warcraft videogame. But finally came back to tennis. Against Feliciano Lopez (vote: 5.5), a great talent wasted, he won a great match but completed his masterpiece against another atypical Spaniard, Ivan Navarro (ex Navarro-Pastor, who decided to cancel his second surname), who plays with two racquets (one to serve, another to return, forcing the ballboy to change it every two points in the tiebreaks) 255 net points in 252 minutes of incredibly enjoyable tennis, with the game suspended for 7 minutes because a 138 mph service by Dent unseated the net. A match who saw Dent celebrating shouting “You guys are unbelievable!” to the crowd and and emotional high-five to all the viewers in the first row. The successive defeat against Murray didn’t ruin his unforgettable joy. Vote:9

Italian tennis – The worst performance ever in Flushing Meadows for Italian guys. Five men in the main draw, as many defeats with only one set won (by the player with the most unfavourable odds, Flavio Cipolla against Benneteau). More than the results, Italian fans are concerned about the way these defeats arrived, without signs of reaction, without fighting, like Starace who lost 76 76 60 by the Swiss journeyman Chiudinelli (losing 7 points in a row in the second set tiebreak). Not the best way to head towards the Davis Cup playoff against Federer and Wawrinka. Vote: 4

Four lessons we learn in Cincinnati

1-God bless Father Roger
The Swiss champion didn’t seem too much diverted by his one-month old twin daughters not to win his 16th Masters series title (in 25 finals), only one less than Andre Agassi, leader of this particular ranking. The surgical demolition of a slightly absentminded Murray and of Novak Djokovic are important signs of health, even more meaninngful with six days remaining from the last Grand Slam tournament of the season, where he could face his nemesis Rafa Nadal, before the final after four years.

2-Can Andy repeat last year final in Flushing Meadows?
Probably, yes. He’s deservedly number 2, the first different from Rafa and Roger to occupy one of the firt two ranking position after Lleyton Hewitt, and on hard courts he’s on his preferred habitat. But the lack of killer instinct he showed in the second set against Federer, when the benefits of his throwback tennis were cancelled by a series of errors in the key points, culminated in the final double fault, left a shadow of doubt. In Cincinnati he revealed his talent to the world years ago when, far from the top-10, defeated the Swiss in straight sets. Now his winning streak of five matches against the number 1 abruptly stopped. In his preferred Slam, where he 12 months ago he conquered the first final in a major, he will have to handle to increasing expectations, as at Wimbledon. And everyone knows how it ended there.

3-Suspended judgement about Rafa
A Masters Series semifinal after months of forced inactivity would be a bright result for anyone else but not for Rafa Nadal. The Mallorcan left a disappointing impression in the first set against Novak Djokovic and only his proverbial pride and fighting istinct sustained him in the second avoiding a more outstanding exit. He’s not on his surface, that’s true, but the lack of dinamicity, the decreasing efficacity of his most dangerous weapon could oblige him to almost superhuman efforts to defend the points conquered with the semifinal reached last year.

4-Novak bites the dust...again
The limbic season of the Serb seem not to have an end. He’s quite good, plays quite well, but this isn’t enough for the player considered an year ago the most dangerous rival for Roger and Rafa. But the racquet change (definitely a mistake), and a crack in self-confidence, exacerbated after the dramatic semifinal in Montecarlo against the Mallorcan, made his game become excessively passive and defensive. His bright display of strokes against Nadal was a swan song before a one-sided final. An year ago, in Cincinnati, he surrendered to Murray. This time against Roger Federer. But his attitude was the same, and the absence of tactical and technical relevant progress are convincing many that his Australian triumph and the Us Open final reached 2 years ago will remain the brightest stars in a left undone career.